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We Will Burn: What's Next?: Wildfire Risk, Recovery, and Geospatial Decision-Making in Greece
Södertörn University, School of Natural Sciences, Technology and Environmental Studies, Environmental Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2857-8790
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)Alternative title
Det kommer att brinna: Vad händer sen? : Skogsbrandrisk, återhämtning och geospatialt beslutsfattande i Grekland (Swedish)
Description
Abstract [en]

Wildfires are intensifying globally, demanding interdisciplinary approaches that integrate both the ecological and social dimensions of fire research. This thesis addressed this need through a holistic framework that examines wildfire impacts and post-fire recovery in Greece, a region highly prone to recurrent wildfires. The aim was to advance understanding of post-fire response, vegetation recovery and restoration, and wildfire risk through an Integrated Fire Management lens, using socio-ecological and geospatial perspectives.

Stakeholder views on post-fire management were explored through Q-methodology that combines qualitative and quantitative techniques to examine subjectivity. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews with 22 participants involved in wildfire management spanning 10 affiliations were conducted. From these interviews, 376 statements were extracted, of which 44 were selected for a Q study. Six distinct discourses were identified: Statist, Abstainer, Beneficiary, Pragmatist, Revolutionary, and Contextualist, revealing contrasting but complementary perspectives and highlighting communication gaps between institutions and actors. Conducted interviews were used to develop a framework for prioritizing areas for post-fire restoration combining stakeholder input with geospatial analysis. Areas covering 77 km² were selected for restoration depending on the fire history, slope, and designation as part of the protected areas. Three locations with a total area of 31 km² were highlighted as potentially needing special attention.

Post-fire vegetation recovery was examined using spatial analysis, statistical methods, and machine learning. Satellite data from MODIS and Landsat over 2013–2025 were analysed through a chrono-sequence approach employing NDVI, EVI, and dNBR vegetation indices. Random Forest algorithm was applied for downscaling climate parameters. By combining spectral indices, topographic variables, and climate data, predictive Generalized Additive Mixed Models were developed to evaluate regeneration patterns in fire-prone areas. Results indicated that recovery correlates positively with precipitation and evapotranspiration and negatively with temperature and elevation. A related research direction emerged around the issue of power line ignitions as a wildfire source. Analysis of official data from the Hellenic Fire Service and records from WWF Greece, media sources and volunteers, along with application of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for validating fire scars revealed systemic data limitations and proved that a total of 237 km² of burned area of selected case studies from 2018 to 2025 were directly linked to electrical causes.

The findings showed the need for developing comprehensive mixed-method approaches and the necessity for improved transparency and infrastructure maintenance to mitigate wildfire risks. Interdisciplinary design and the outcomes of this thesis contribute to the evolving field of Integrated Fire Management by comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics and offering evidence-based insights to guide more adaptive and inclusive wildfire governance in the Mediterranean.

Abstract [sv]

De pågående klimatförändringarna har ökat både antalet och intensiteten av skogsbränder i stora delar av världen. För att undersöka vilka miljöfaktorer som kan påverka risken för skogsbrand och vilka effekter på skogsekosystem som skogsbränder kan få behövs tvärvetenskapliga angreppssätt som integrerar ekologiska och sociala dimensioner inom skogsbrandforskning. Min avhandling använder ett holistiskt ramverk som undersöker effekter av skogsbränder och vegetationens återhämtning efter brand i Grekland, en region som är särskilt utsatt för återkommande skogsbränder. Syftet var att öka förståelsen för efterbrandsförvaltning, restaureringsåtgärder och vegetationens återhämtning efter brand, och brandrisk, genom att integrera socioekologiska och geospatiala perspektiv och metoder.

Olika intressenters idéer om efterbrandsförvaltning undersöktes med hjälp av Q-metodologi som kombinerar kvalitativa och kvantitativa metoder för att analysera subjektivitet. Semistrukturerade djupintervjuer genomfördes med 22 deltagare från 10 olika organisationer som är involverade i skogsbrandsförvaltning. Från intervjuerna extraherades 376 påståenden, varav 44 valdes ut för en Q-studie som kunde identifiera sex distinkta diskurser: ”Statist”, ”Abstainer”, ”Beneficiary”, ”Pragmatist”, ”Revolutionary” och ”Contextualist”, vilket visade kontrasterande men kompletterande perspektiv, men även belyste brister i kommunikation mellan institutioner och aktörer. Intervjuerna användes även för att utveckla ett ramverk för prioritering av områden för restaurering efter brand, genom att kombinera intressenternas synpunkter med en geospatial analys. Ett område på 77 km² valdes ut för restaurering baserat på brandhistorik, lutning och status som skyddade områden, varav tre områden om totalt 31 km² identifierades som särskilt prioriterade.

Vegetationens återhämtning efter brand analyserades med hjälp av spatial analys, statistiska analys och maskininlärning. Satellitdata från MODIS och Landsat för perioden 2013–2025 analyserades med en kronosekvensmetod med användning av vegetationsindexen NDVI, EVI och dNBR som mått på vegetationens status. Random Forest-algoritmen användes för nedskalning av klimatparametrar. Genom att kombinera spektrala index, topografiska variabler och klimatdata utvecklades prediktiva generaliserade additiva mixade modeller för att utvärdera regenerationsmönster i brandutsatta områden. För denna studie pågår fortfarande metodutveckling, men preliminära resultat visar att vegetationens återhämtning är positivt korrelerad med nederbörd och evapotranspiration, samt negativt korrelerad med temperatur och höjd över havet. I en ytterligare studie analyserade vi om gnistbildning från elledningar är en viktig källa till skogsbränder. Analys av officiella data från Hellenic Fire Service, uppgifter från WWF Grekland, medier och volontärer, tillsammans med användning av Sentinel-2-satellitdata för validering av brända områden, visade på systematiska databegränsningar men även att totalt 237 km² av brända områden i utvalda fallstudier från 2018 till 2025 var direkt kopplade till elektrisk infrastruktur.

Resultaten i avhandlingen visar behoven av att utveckla omfattande mixade metoder samt vikten av ökad transparens och ökat underhåll av infrastruktur för att minska risken för skogsbränder. Avhandlingens tvärvetenskapliga utformning och resultat bidrar till det framväxande forskningsfältet ”Integrated Fire Management” genom fördjupad förståelse av skogsbrandsdynamik och genom att erbjuda evidensbaserade insikter för en mer adaptiv och inkluderande styrning av skogsbränder i Medelhavsområdet.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Huddinge: Södertörns högskola, 2026. , p. 162
Series
Södertörn Doctoral Dissertations, ISSN 1652-7399 ; 260
Keywords [en]
wildfires, Greece, spatial analysis, GIS, satellite imagery, Remote Sensing, Machine Learning, restoration, recovery, post-fire management, power line ignitions, Q methodology, interviews, stakeholders, perspectives, interdisciplinary fire science
Keywords [sv]
skogsbränder, Grekland, GIS, satellitbilder, fjärranalys, maskininlärning, restaurering, återhämtning, efterbrandsförvaltning, elledningsorsakade antändningar, Qmetodologi, intervjuer, perspektiv, tvärvetenskaplig brandforskning
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environmental Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-60129ISBN: 978-91-89962-71-2 (print)ISBN: 978-91-89962-72-9 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-60129DiVA, id: diva2:2063808
Public defence
2026-09-25, MA624, Alfred Nobels allé 7, Huddinge, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-06-04 Created: 2026-05-30 Last updated: 2026-06-04
List of papers
1. Stakeholder perceptions of post-fire management in Greece
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2026 (English)In: Fire Ecology, E-ISSN 1933-9747, Vol. 22, no 1, article id 37Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: The views of key stakeholders involved in wildfire management can reveal existing challenges in post-fire management and help to develop effective action plans. The Mediterranean region is prone to large, uncontrollable fires due to changing climate conditions. As the need to address fire-related damage increases, Greece has a unique system of post-fire management with numerous experts and stakeholders expressing divergent views on the current situation and the need for systemic changes. We conducted semi-structured, in-depth interviews with 22 participants involved in wildfire management at multiple levels spanning 10 affiliations, including government, academia, private business, non-governmental organizations, and activism. From these interviews, 376 statements were extracted, of which 44 were ultimately selected for a Q study. This method combines qualitative and quantitative techniques to examine subjectivity. The same interviewees were contacted a second time to complete the ranking process.

Result: The study revealed six distinct discourses on existing policies and management strategies for post-fire restoration in Greece. We found that actors focus on and prioritize different aspects of post-fire management, indicating disagreement over a single common view. We labeled the factors as Statist, advocating government intervention in post-fire restoration; Abstainer, supporting non-interference; Beneficiary, emphasizing the need to support vulnerable groups; Pragmatist, promoting standardized practices to ensure restoration efficiency; Revolutionary, highlighting the necessity of self-organization and communities’ unity; and Contextualist, proposing locally applicable solutions.

Conclusions: We conclude that there are many perspectives on how post-fire issues are currently managed, necessitating dialog to advance a more comprehensive, holistic post-fire management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2026
Keywords
Post-fire management, Restoration, Q methodology, Perspectives, Wildfires, Greece
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environmental Studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-59801 (URN)10.1186/s42408-026-00476-6 (DOI)001740931400001 ()2-s2.0-105036165149 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-04-24 Created: 2026-04-24 Last updated: 2026-06-01Bibliographically approved
2. Prioritizing areas for post-fire restoration in Greece using mixed-methods spatial analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Prioritizing areas for post-fire restoration in Greece using mixed-methods spatial analysis
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2026 (English)In: PLOS ONE, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 21, no 1, article id e0339998Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Mediterranean region will likely face an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires due to climate change. Despite being fire-prone, Greece lacks a developed standardized system for identifying and prioritizing burned areas in relation to their restoration needs. Prioritization of areas for post-fire restoration efforts using Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing is a powerful decision-making tool, which, however, can be insufficient in effectively integrating socio-ecological criteria and perspectives from multiple stakeholders. Combining qualitative methods such as interviews with remotely sensed data can enhance the understanding of nuances in a local context. We designed an approach to identify high-priority areas for post-fire vegetation restoration. The identification was based on stakeholder interviews and the subsequent integration of their responses with subsequent multi-criteria overlay analysis. We selected criteria to rank the areas by interviewing 15 stakeholders working on post-fire issues. The expert interviews revealed the key characteristics respondents consider essential for prioritizing burned areas for restoration. Areas covering 77.25 km² were selected for restoration depending on the fire history, slope, and designation as part of the protected areas. Outcomes of the analysis helped to highlight three locations that potentially need special attention, with the total area of 31 km². We propose a prioritization system that is flexible, scalable, and can help government agencies, local foresters, private consultancies, and NGOs plan restoration actions and optimize the effectiveness of restoration programs in various ecosystems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2026
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-58897 (URN)10.1371/journal.pone.0339998 (DOI)001660075900004 ()41525251 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105027118419 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-01-13 Created: 2026-01-13 Last updated: 2026-06-01Bibliographically approved
3. Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery in Greece: Integrating GIS, Machine Learning, and Satellite Data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery in Greece: Integrating GIS, Machine Learning, and Satellite Data
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environmental Studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-60079 (URN)
Note

As manuscript in dissertation

Available from: 2026-06-01 Created: 2026-06-01 Last updated: 2026-06-01Bibliographically approved
4. Wildfire ignitions from power lines in Greece: data gaps, case studies, and prevention strategies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Wildfire ignitions from power lines in Greece: data gaps, case studies, and prevention strategies
Show others...
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environmental Studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-60080 (URN)
Note

As manuscript in dissertation

Available from: 2026-06-01 Created: 2026-06-01 Last updated: 2026-06-01Bibliographically approved

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Palenova, Elena

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