Drawing on research on political culture and research on geopolitical orientations, this article analyses public opinion in the three Baltic states (2014 and 2021), focusing on political support, inter-ethnic relations and geopolitical attitudes. In the first section, the empirical analysis demonstrates widespread public support for the national communities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Most respondents feel a sense of attachment to or pride in their respective homeland, and a relative majority of all respondents feel that their contemporary political systems are preferable to other systems in the past. At the same time, the analysis alert us to distinct ethnic differences: the Russian-speakers in the three countries tend to be decidedly more nostalgic about the Soviet past and less satisfied with the present regimes. Confirming and updating findings familiar from previous studies, this article also notes that the population groups in the three Baltic states were growing more or less accustomed to the domestic situation, up until the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022. In the second part of the article, we turn to geopolitical belonging and security perceptions in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 

Baltic Barometer 2014. Public opinion data: representative samples of the adult population in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, including the Russian-speaking and Polish minorities.

The dataset provides important information about the mood in the three Baltic countries almost 25 years after the restoration of their independence and 10 years after their accession as full members of the European Union. It covers attitudes towards the past, current events and to some extent hopes for the future.

Baltic Barometer 2014. Opinionsdata: Representativa urval av den vuxna befolkningen i Estland, Lettland och Litauen (inklusive de rysktalande och de polska minoritetsgrupperna i dessa länder).

Datasetet ger viktig information om stämningen i de tre baltiska staterna nästan 25 år sedan de åter blivit självständiga och tio år efter att de blivit fullvärdiga medlemmar i EU. Det innehåller attityder till det förflutna, aktuella händelser, och i viss mån förhoppningar om framtiden.

Opinion data from Hungary, Bulgaria and Latvia (including the Russian-speaking minority).

This survey focuses on relations with and attitudes towards Russia in three East European countries with a record of close ties with Russia – Latvia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. The survey was carried out against the backdrop of Russia´s annexation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. It may be the very first survey to tap East European reactions to Russia’s drastic attempt to redraw the map of post-war Eastern Europe. The 2015 Post-Crimea Survey asks many of the key questions in the Baltic Barometer questions about identity, democracy, and the European Union (Baltic Barometer 2014).

Opinionsdata från Ungern, Bulgarien och Lettland (inklusive den rysktalande minoriteten).

Denna undersökning fokuserar på relationen med och attityder till Ryssland i tre östeuropeiska länder som historiskt haft nära band till Ryssland, nämligen Lettland, Ungern och Bulgarien. Undersökningen gjordes mot bakgrund av Rysslands annektering av Krim och östra Ukraina. Det kan vara den första undersökningen som tar del av östeuropeiska reaktioner på Rysslands drastiska försök att rita om kartan för efterkrigstidens Östeuropa. 2015 års undersökningen Post-Crimea, tar upp många av nyckelfrågorna i Baltic Barometer, så som identitet, demokrati och Europeiska unionen (Baltic Barometer 2014).

The book is the first systematic and comparative effort to capture political culture in the Baltic countries, including political orientation and support for democracy. Revolving around public opinion data from the 1990s and onwards, including two recent surveys commissioned by the authors, the book takes stock of the political climate prevailing in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania a quarter of a century after reclaiming independence and fifteen years after becoming members of NATO and the EU. These three countries share the same geopolitical fate and many contemporary challenges, and yet each has been marked by their own transitions and struggles between nation building and European integration, Western and post-Soviet orientations, and past experience and future aspirations.

Two distinct cases of kin-state relations are examined: that of Russians living in states neighboring Russia and that of Magyars living in states around Hungary. The role of kin-state relations in Europe is studied from a historical perspective and, with reference to Rogers Brubaker's concept of a triadic nexus between nationalizing states, a national minority, and an external homeland. It is argued that the fall of communism – and the fall of several multi-ethnic federations, in particular – revived old territorial conflicts and hostility among national groups both within and between states. The question of kin-state relations is put at the forefront of European minority issues.

Drawing on cross-national public opinion surveys from the spring of 2014, this article analyses popular support for democracy in the three Baltic states – more specifically the attitudinal differences between the ethnic majorities and the Russian-speaking minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. It assesses the democratic political culture of the three countries 25 years after the fall of communism in Europe, 10 years after EU membership, a few years after the global financial crisis, and in the midst of the recent Russian–Ukrainian crisis. The data demonstrate widespread public dissatisfaction with democracy throughout the region, especially in Latvia, the country hardest hit by the crisis in 2008–2009. As a rule, the Russian-speaking minorities in the three Baltic states tend to be more critical of democracy than ethnic Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians.

Much of the political science literature suggests that a cohesive political community is advantageous, if not a precondition, for a stable democracy. Forging a cohesive community is obviously a more complex matter in a multi-ethnic setting. This article will consider the prospects of building political communities in the Baltic countries – three countries that, to various extents, struggle to balance ethnic pluralism, nation-building and democracy. The article examines the relationship between political community and democracy from a theoretical perspective, followed by an outline of the nation-building strategies taken by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after re-establishing independence in the early 90s. Drawing on survey data, we will use territorial attachment to tap the sense of political community in the three countries. Notably, our figures disclose that most of the Russian-speaking minorities in Estonia and Latvia identify themselves as 'Russians', and not at all with the country they reside in. This suggests that the contested issue of citizenship rights in the two countries has not been particularly conducive for creating cohesive political communities. We then move to the political regime and set out to examine the character of regime support in the three countries. Can we envisage solid support for democracy and its institutions in the absence of a cohesive political community? As it appears, regime support is not contingent on territorial identity. Our data disclose that many Baltic inhabitants draw a clear distinction between their own experiences with different political systems and what they perceive as relevant regime options today.