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Publications (10 of 65) Show all publications
Dilnessa, A. A., Elofsson, K., Taghizadeh-Toosi, A. & Jansson, T. (2026). Cost-effective Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils in the EU From 2020 to 2050. Environmental Modelling and Assessment, 31, 573-591
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Cost-effective Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils in the EU From 2020 to 2050
2026 (English)In: Environmental Modelling and Assessment, ISSN 1420-2026, E-ISSN 1573-2967, Vol. 31, p. 573-591Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Carbon (C) sequestration in agricultural soils is forwarded as an option for meeting the objective of making the EU climate neutral by 2050, but the efficiency is questioned due to the non-permanent nature of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The purpose of this study is to examine cost-effective strategies for enhancing C sequestration in agricultural soil across 26 EU countries from 2020 to 2050 while accounting for non-permanence. We develop a dynamic and spatially disaggregated cost-effectiveness model considering three measures: reductions in grain and straw harvests and catch crop cultivation, used to compare the minimum costs of meeting annual national and EU level targets for either sequestration or emissions. The results show that national targets are about 2.6 times more costly than the corresponding EU targets, and emission targets are about 2.5 times more expensive than the corresponding sequestration targets. Findings suggest C sequestration in agricultural soils has the potential to mitigate approximately 38 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) annually from 2020 to 2050 at a marginal cost of approximately 64 euro per tonne. If emissions are targeted, the same mitigation could be achieved at a marginal cost of about 183 euro per tonne. The use of annual targets implies the shadow price on C sequestration in soils is jointly determined by the target stringency in preceding, contemporary, and future time periods. The highest shadow price is found around the year 2030. This suggests the use of temporally varying economic incentives for C sequestration in agricultural soils.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2026
Keywords
Agriculture, Catch crops, Climate policy, Cost-effectiveness, Non-permanence, Soil organic carbon (SOC)
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-58925 (URN)10.1007/s10666-025-10092-4 (DOI)001652727900001 ()2-s2.0-105026676519 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Independent Research Fund Denmark, 0217-00124BEU, Horizon Europe, 101112942
Available from: 2026-01-14 Created: 2026-01-14 Last updated: 2026-09-24Bibliographically approved
Lozano, J. & Elofsson, K. (2026). Economic Trade‐Offs of Land Use Change and Wildlife Values. Natural Resource Modeling, 39(1), Article ID e70018.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Economic Trade‐Offs of Land Use Change and Wildlife Values
2026 (English)In: Natural Resource Modeling, ISSN 0890-8575, E-ISSN 1939-7445, Vol. 39, no 1, article id e70018Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Land use conversion entails trade-offs across multiple ecosystem services of wildlife. Wildlife is often characterized by spatiotemporal dynamics that affect this trade-off. The aim of this paper is to examine the net benefits from changes in the land use composition, given the consequences for the benefits provided by a harvested migratory prey species. The study is applied to land use and roe deer hunting in Sweden. We examine the spatial dynamics of land use, predator populations, prey, and prey hunting, by developing a bioeconomic model that is estimated using a dynamic spatial-lag model (dynamic SAR). The results show that a conversion of coniferous and broadleaf forests into grazing land increases game harvests and could offset the negative impact of large carnivores on hunting outcomes. Yet, such conversion is likely to be associated with a net social cost. In contrast, there are both increased game harvests and net economic gains from conversion of coniferous forests into broadleaves. Our findings are informative for policymaking on land use and wildlife management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2026
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Politics, Economy and the Organization of Society
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-58598 (URN)10.1111/nrm.70018 (DOI)001731077900005 ()2-s2.0-105023953107 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2025-12-09 Created: 2025-12-09 Last updated: 2026-04-20Bibliographically approved
Elofsson, K. (2026). Policy Instruments for the Efficient Use of Carbon Cascades in Agricultural Products. Aarhus, Denmark: Aarhus University, DCE - Danish Centre for Environment and Energy
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Policy Instruments for the Efficient Use of Carbon Cascades in Agricultural Products
2026 (English)Report (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Aarhus, Denmark: Aarhus University, DCE - Danish Centre for Environment and Energy, 2026. p. 17
Series
Scientific note ; 2026|09
Keywords
carbon, climate, policy, policy instrument, cost-benefit analysis, carbon cascades
National Category
Economics Climate Science
Research subject
Politics, Economy and the Organization of Society
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-59360 (URN)
Available from: 2026-02-27 Created: 2026-02-27 Last updated: 2026-03-04Bibliographically approved
Taghizadeh-Toosi, A., Nielsen, S. V. & Elofsson, K. (2026). Potential of crop residues management for soil organic carbon sequestration in European countries until 2050: a simplified modelling approach. Soil Security, 22, Article ID 100221.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Potential of crop residues management for soil organic carbon sequestration in European countries until 2050: a simplified modelling approach
2026 (English)In: Soil Security, E-ISSN 2667-0062, Vol. 22, article id 100221Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key component of soil organic matter, playing a vital role in soil fertility, health, biodiversity, and food production. Enhancing SOC in agricultural soils has been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change. Returning crop residues to the soil is a widely recognized approach to increase SOC, although residues can also be combusted for energy or processed via anaerobic digestion for biogas. This study evaluated the carbon sequestration potential of agricultural soils across 27 European countries using scenario analysis within a modeling framework. Various crop residue management strategies were considered alongside the impacts of rising temperatures. Simulations were performed with the process-based C-TOOL model, using input data from European databases on crop cultivation, soil properties, and climate. Results indicate that treated crop residues sequester more SOC than untreated residues due to differences in decomposability. While projected temperature increases may reduce SOC accumulation, the use of treated residues still provides a positive effect across all countries. These findings highlight the dual potential of residue management for energy production and SOC enhancement in European agroecosystems. Future studies should adopt a broader systems perspective, integrating techno-economic and energy-yield analyses, while assessing SOC sequestration benefits and greenhouse gas implications of different energy conversion pathways through full life cycle analysis. Considering local pedo-climatic, socioeconomic, and policy conditions, and leveraging national-scale data, will be critical for developing sustainable, effective, and policy-relevant SOC management strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2026
Keywords
Agricultural soils, Carbon sequestration, Crop residues, European countries
National Category
Soil Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-58799 (URN)10.1016/j.soisec.2025.100221 (DOI)2-s2.0-105025135659 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Independent Research Fund Denmark, 0217-00124B
Available from: 2026-01-12 Created: 2026-01-12 Last updated: 2026-01-14Bibliographically approved
Karpavicius, L. M. & Elofsson, K. (2026). Practice- or results-based subsidies: balancing the direct costs for soil carbon sequestration and transaction costs for farmers and monitoring agencies. Q Open, 6(1), Article ID qoag015.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Practice- or results-based subsidies: balancing the direct costs for soil carbon sequestration and transaction costs for farmers and monitoring agencies
2026 (English)In: Q Open, E-ISSN 2633-9048, Vol. 6, no 1, article id qoag015Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Policymakers increasingly seek to promote agricultural carbon sequestration, avoiding both income losses for farmers and excessive public implementation costs. This study compares practice- and results-based subsidies to soil carbon sequestration with respect to their total costs, sequestration achieved, and income effects. We develop a numerical model that maximizes social net benefits while accounting for private transaction costs, public monitoring costs, and regional and farm type heterogeneity. The findings reveal that results-based subsidies deliver higher net benefits and sequestration. The per hectare monitoring costs for a practice-based scheme must be less than 30 per cent of those for a results-based scheme for the former to deliver higher net benefits, given a carbon price of 250 €/tCO₂e. Sensitivity analysis shows that higher carbon prices require the monitoring costs of a practice-based scheme to be even lower relative to those of a results-based scheme in order to outperform it.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2026
Keywords
agriculture, agri-environmental support, carbon sequestration, monitoring costs, practice- and results-based subsidies
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-60002 (URN)10.1093/qopen/qoag015 (DOI)001773492000001 ()2-s2.0-105040036699 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-05-18 Created: 2026-05-18 Last updated: 2026-07-01Bibliographically approved
Dilnessa, A. A., Elofsson, K. & Schneider, U. A. (2026). Spatio-temporal dynamics of biochar application as a climate tool in European agriculture: Economic insights. Environmental Modelling & Software, 205, Article ID 107131.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Spatio-temporal dynamics of biochar application as a climate tool in European agriculture: Economic insights
2026 (English)In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 205, article id 107131Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Biochar application on agricultural land is promoted for its high permanence as a carbon sink. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics and economic net benefits of biochar sequestration in EU agricultural soils from 2020 to 2050. A discrete time dynamic economic optimization model, spatially disaggregated across 26 EU member states, evaluates trade-offs between using agricultural residues for biochar, bioenergy, direct soil incorporation, and cover crops. Results show that biochar will become economically viable within the next decade, with optimal carbon stocks reaching 0.6–6.8 tonnes per hectare by 2050. Countries with abundant biomass benefit most due to economies of scale and lower transport costs. By 2050, optimal carbon sequestration yields a net present value of about 212 billion euro, including 36 billion from biochar. Sensitivity analysis underscores the influence of carbon pricing, production costs, and regional biomass supply. Biochar thus offers a cost-effective, regionally variable mitigation option for the EU.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2026
Keywords
Agriculture, Biochar, Bioenergy, Cost effectiveness, Nonpermanence, soil carbon sequestration
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-61165 (URN)10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107131 (DOI)001842060600001 ()2-s2.0-105046342330 (Scopus ID)
Projects
MARVIC
Funder
Independent Research Fund Denmark, 0217-00124BEU, Horizon Europe, 101112942
Available from: 2026-08-26 Created: 2026-08-26 Last updated: 2026-09-04Bibliographically approved
Karpavicius, L. M., Elofsson, K. & Yan, S. (2026). The determinants of transaction costs for carbon sequestration projects: a meta-analytical review. Journal of Forest Economics, 41(3), 329-353
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The determinants of transaction costs for carbon sequestration projects: a meta-analytical review
2026 (English)In: Journal of Forest Economics, ISSN 1104-6899, E-ISSN 1618-1530, Vol. 41, no 3, p. 329-353Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Carbon sequestration is suggested as a cost-effective strategy for climate mitigation. However, transaction costs (TRCs) for carbon sequestration projects, that is, the costs of establishment, management, compliance with trading requirements, and monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV), are often overlooked. The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of TRCs in forest carbon sequestration projects through a meta-regression analysis. This study finds 31 peer-reviewed papers published from 2000 to 2022 in international journals and with sufficient information about TRCs and project contexts. The studies report TRCs that vary from <0.1 to 1,084.6 US$/tCO2e, with a median of 1.1 US$/tCO2e, and a couple of high-end outliers. This study explores the role of determinants of reported TRCs in terms of project characteristics, policy instrument applied, institutional context, methods used and TRC categories considered. Results reveal that overall TRCs increase proportionally with the amount of carbon sequestered. The findings further suggest that projects generating offset credits or receiving payments for ecosystem services, exhibit about 16 and 4 times higher TRCs, respectively, than projects not tied to specific policy instruments. Moreover, studies only reporting a single TRC category show systematically lower costs, raising concerns for the use of such studies in a real-world policy context due to the risk of TRCs being underestimated.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2026
Keywords
Carbon sequestration, Carbon offsets, Forestry, Meta-regression, Monitoring, Reporting and verification (MRV) costs, Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES)
National Category
Economics Forest Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-59799 (URN)10.1108/JFE-11-2024-0054 (DOI)001739851800001 ()
Funder
Independent Research Fund Denmark, 0217-00124BEU, Horizon Europe, 101112942EU, Horizon Europe, 101135159
Available from: 2026-04-24 Created: 2026-04-24 Last updated: 2026-10-01Bibliographically approved
Gebru, B. & Elofsson, K. (2026). Water scarcity, diarrhea, and health insurance uptake in Ethiopia: an instrumental variables approach. Sustainable water resources management, 12(2), Article ID 30.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Water scarcity, diarrhea, and health insurance uptake in Ethiopia: an instrumental variables approach
2026 (English)In: Sustainable water resources management, ISSN 2363-5037, Vol. 12, no 2, article id 30Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Provision of safe drinking water continues to be a challenge in water-stressed African regions. This paper investigates how water scarcity affects diarrheal illness and health insurance uptake in Ethiopia. It further examines heterogeneous effects related to households' water purification habits and handwashing facilities, and identifies underlying mechanisms. The study combines socioeconomic data with high-resolution weather and water quality test data. The analysis uses an instrumental variables approach with temperature shocks as an instrument for water scarcity. Findings indicate that a 1% rise in water scarcity is associated with an increased probability of diarrheal illness by 4.2% and acquisition of health insurance by 2.5%. The impact on diarrheal illness is larger among households that do not boil their water and lack access to handwashing facilities with water. No significant difference in health insurance ownership is observed between households that purify drinking water and those that do not. This result potentially reflects higher risk aversion among the former. The effects are driven by households' use of unimproved water and sanitation facilities as well as higher medical spending on doctor visits and prescribed medications. These results highlight the need to improve water access and expand health insurance to reduce climate-related health risks in Ethiopia.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2026
Keywords
Diarrheal illness, Ethiopia, Health insurance, Instrumental variables, Water scarcity
National Category
Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-59534 (URN)10.1007/s40899-026-01328-6 (DOI)001723803400002 ()2-s2.0-105035032090 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-04-08 Created: 2026-04-08 Last updated: 2026-05-04Bibliographically approved
Elofsson, K., Abate, T. G., Ostman, O. & Huss, M. (2025). Accounting for Predator-Prey Fisheries in the Cost-Effective Management of Eutrophicated Coastal Waters. Marine Resource Economics, 40(2), 81-105
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Accounting for Predator-Prey Fisheries in the Cost-Effective Management of Eutrophicated Coastal Waters
2025 (English)In: Marine Resource Economics, ISSN 0738-1360, Vol. 40, no 2, p. 81-105Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Policies for mitigating the eutrophication of coastal waters typically focus on reducing land-based emissions. Fish and fisheries management have been suggested as a potentially efficient complementary measure. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cost-effective achievement of targets for coastal water transparency with the help of adjusted harvesting strategies for predatory fish, biomanipulation of prey fish, and nutrient load mitigation, taking natural variations in water color into account. We develop an empirical steady-state bioeconomic model and apply it to two case areas along the Swedish Baltic Sea. Results show that prey fish stocks, which negatively affect water transparency, are reduced to a minimum in one study area, while an interior solution with a positive harvest is found in the other. Policies targeting fish management can be relevant for locally tailored strategies to mitigate eutrophication.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
University of Chicago Press, 2025
Keywords
Baltic Sea, bioeconomic model, coastal areas, cost-effectiveness, eutrophication, harvests, nutrient loads, phosphorus, predator-prey fishery, Q53, Q57
National Category
Fish and Aquacultural Science Economics
Research subject
Baltic and East European studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-56439 (URN)10.1086/733795 (DOI)001408183700001 ()2-s2.0-105016863045 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2018-0076
Available from: 2025-02-17 Created: 2025-02-17 Last updated: 2026-09-29Bibliographically approved
Gebru, B., Elofsson, K., Amuakwa-Mensah, F. & Marbuah, G. (2025). Climate variability and its impact on sanitation facility choice in Ethiopia. Discover Water, 5(1), Article ID 43.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Climate variability and its impact on sanitation facility choice in Ethiopia
2025 (English)In: Discover Water, E-ISSN 2730-647X, Vol. 5, no 1, article id 43Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate change is expected to affect precipitation and temperature, with consequences for water availability and sanitation. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how precipitation and temperature affect households’ decisions on sanitation facilities that vary in their dependence on water for operation. To this end, we use household-level panel data from the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey in combination with location-matched, high-resolution weather data. Employing a panel fixed-effects regression model, the findings reveal that higher precipitation is significantly associated with an 18% lower (higher) likelihood of using improved (unimproved) sanitation facilities, respectively. Higher temperature has the opposite effect. Both precipitation and temperature have heterogeneous impacts: the effect of precipitation is significant only in male-headed households, while temperature affects the use of shared improved facilities in towns and urban areas. One potential explanation for the influence of precipitation is that heavy precipitation can disrupt access to piped water and sanitation networks by causing physical damage to infrastructure. Furthermore, higher temperature may accelerate the decomposition of solids in septic tanks, thereby reducing the need for water. These findings could help policymakers and practitioners implement evidence-based sanitation interventions to increase access to improved sanitation facilities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2025
Keywords
Climate variability, Ethiopia, panel fixed effects, precipitation variability, sanitation facility, temperature variability.
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Politics, Economy and the Organization of Society
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-58034 (URN)10.1007/s43832-025-00238-6 (DOI)
Available from: 2025-09-02 Created: 2025-09-02 Last updated: 2026-03-10Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-1653-3437

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