This article analyses how and why the geopolitical orientations of Belarusian elites diverged after 2020, comparing the trajectories of the Lukashenka regime and the Belarusian democratic forces in exile. Drawing on historical institutionalism, it identifies the post-electoral crisis of 2020 and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as critical junctures that restructured elite incentives and constraints. The regime moved from managed multi-vectorism to structurally embedded dependence on Russia, generating path-dependent lock-in. In contrast, the democratic forces shifted from initial geopolitical caution to a consolidated pro-European orientation. The analysis demonstrates that these reorientations were institutionally mediated responses to external shocks, transforming geopolitical alignment into the principal dividing line of elite politics in Belarus.

This chapter analyses Belarus–EU relations from the early 1990s to the present, identifying four key phases shaped by domestic and international factors. It argues that, until 2022, EU's policy towards Belarus was marked by inconsistent objectives and a weak capacity to adapt to the changing geopolitical environment. EU's democracy promotion efforts were further undermined by Russia's sustained support for the Lukashenka regime. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a policy shift, reflected in the 2024 EU Council Conclusions, which affirmed the EU's support for the European future of democratic Belarus seen as essential for regional security.