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Co-variation of Cholera with Climatic and Environmental Parameters in Coastal Regions of Tanzania
Department of Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries, University of Dar es Salaam, PO Box 35064 Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. (Sjöling)
Department of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology, University of Dar es Salaam, PO Box 35179, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Department of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology, University of Dar es Salaam, PO Box 35179, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, PO Box 65001 Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
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2014 (English)In: Western Indian Ocean journal of marine science, ISSN 0856-860X, Vol. 13, no 1, 93-105 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The bacterium causing cholera, Vibrio cholerae, is essentially a marine organism and its ecological dynamics have been linked to oceanographic conditions and climate. We used autoregressive models with external inputs to identify potential relationships between the number of cholera cases in the coastal regions of mainland Tanzania with climatic and environmental indices (maximum air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed and chlorophyll a). Results revealed that, between 2004 and 2010, coastal regions of mainland Tanzania inhabited by approximately 21% of the total population accounted for approximately 50% of the cholera cases and 40% of the total mortality. Significant co-variations were found between seasonally adjusted cholera cases and coastal ocean chlorophyll a and, to some degree, sea surface temperature, the outbreaks lagging behind by one to four months. Cholera cases in Dar es Salaam were also weakly related to the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index, lagging by five months, suggesting that it may be possible to predict cholera outbreaks for Dar es Salaam this period ahead. The results also suggest that the severity of cholera in coastal regions can be predicted by ocean conditions and that longer-term environmental and climate parameters may be used to predict cholera outbreaks along the coastal regions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 13, no 1, 93-105 p.
Keyword [en]
cholera, climate, environment, coastal regions, mainland Tanzania
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environmental Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-28708OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-28708DiVA: diva2:868065
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
Available from: 2015-11-09 Created: 2015-11-09 Last updated: 2016-10-07Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
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More styles
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