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Incorporating ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects in cumulative impact assessment models
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden.
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4329-9052
UiT Arctic University Norway, Norway.
Södertörn University, School of Natural Sciences, Technology and Environmental Studies, Environmental Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2016-4857
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2025 (English)In: Journal of Environmental Management, ISSN 0301-4797, E-ISSN 1095-8630, Vol. 381, article id 125268Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The cumulative impact of anthropogenic pressures on coastal seas is important to consider for a strategic and sustainable management of marine ecosystems. We aim to demonstrate how, and to what extent, incorporating interactions among ecosystem components (species and habitats) and indirect effects of pressures through other ecosystem components can develop existing cumulative impact assessment (CIA) models. A Swedish case study area was selected to test a simplified version of the extended regional Symphony CIA model. Five pollution- and climate-driven pressures acting on three trophically connected ecosystem components, i.e. cod, herring and plankton species/organism groups, were used. In addition, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature to determine the impact weight scores for an advancement of the method. The results from the development of CIA models clearly indicate the importance of introducing ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects into CIA models. The total cumulative impact increased by 117 % in the test area, but even more importantly, the development of the model resulted in a spatially more detailed outcome with a greater spatial variability in the magnitude of the total cumulative impact. New areas were highlighted that are under pressure compared to the original model. Thus, the development of the model captures cumulative impacts that would otherwise be overlooked if ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects were ignored. These types of changes to CIA models are required to increase the predictive power and ecological relevance to accommodate solid holistic and ecosystem-based marine management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025. Vol. 381, article id 125268
Keywords [en]
Cumulative impact assessment models, Methodological advancements, Ecosystem component interactions, Direct and indirect effects
National Category
Ecology
Research subject
Baltic and East European studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-57000DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125268ISI: 001471126600001PubMedID: 40228467Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105002321442OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-57000DiVA, id: diva2:1956217
Projects
ClimPoll (Management of cumulative effects of climate change and pollution in coastal seas)
Part of project
Unravelling the relative influence of climate and land-use change on nitrogen retention in Baltic Sea coastal sediments over the last 300 years, The Foundation for Baltic and East European Studies
Funder
Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, NV-802-0121-19Swedish Agency for Marine and Water ManagementThe Foundation for Baltic and East European Studies, 21-PD2-0002Available from: 2025-05-05 Created: 2025-05-05 Last updated: 2025-05-05Bibliographically approved

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Dahl, MartinGullström, Martin

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