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Lower COVID‐19 Incidence in Low‐Continentality West‐Coast Areas of Europe
Södertörn University, School of Natural Sciences, Technology and Environmental Studies, Environmental Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1030-5268
Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1518-2631
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Division on Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Viterbo, Italy.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6040-5638
2022 (English)In: GeoHealth, E-ISSN 2471-1403, Vol. 6, no 5, article id e2021GH000568Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In March 2020, the first known cases of COVID-19 occurred in Europe. Subsequently, the pandemic developed a seasonal pattern. The incidence of COVID-19 comprises spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variations, with lower and/or shorter peaks resulting in lower total incidence and higher and/or longer peaks resulting higher total incidence. The reason behind this phenomena is still unclear. Unraveling factors that explain why certain places have higher versus lower total COVID-19 incidence can help health decision makers understand and plan for future waves of the pandemic. We test whether differences in the total incidence of COVID-19 within five European countries (Norway, Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Spain), correlate with two environmental factors: the Köppen-Geiger climate zones and the Continentality Index, while statistically controlling for crowding. Our results show that during the first 16 months of the pandemic (March 2020 to July 2021), climate zones with larger annual differences in temperature and annually distributed precipitation show a higher total incidence than climate zones with smaller differences in temperature and dry seasons. This coincides with lower continentality values. Total incidence increases with continentality, up to a Continentality Index value of 19, where a peak is reached in the semicontinental zone. Low continentality (high oceanic influence) appears to be a strong suppressing factor for COVID-19 spread. The incidence in our study area is lowest at open low continentality west coast areas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2022. Vol. 6, no 5, article id e2021GH000568
Keywords [en]
COVID-19 pandemic, European west-wind zone, continentality, climate zones, GIS
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environmental Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-48981DOI: 10.1029/2021gh000568ISI: 000793864100001PubMedID: 35516911Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85130626043OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-48981DiVA, id: diva2:1656402
Available from: 2022-05-05 Created: 2022-05-05 Last updated: 2023-06-21Bibliographically approved

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Ebert, Karin

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CiteExportLink to record
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