Export sales forecasting using artificial intelligence
2021 (English)In: Technological forecasting & social change, ISSN 0040-1625, E-ISSN 1873-5509, Vol. 163, article id 120480Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
Sales forecasting is important in production and supply chain management. It affects firms’ planning, strategy, marketing, logistics, warehousing and resource management. While traditional time series forecasting methods prevail in research and practice, they have several limitations. Causal forecasting methods are capable of predicting future sales behavior based on relationships between variables and not just past behavior and trends. This research proposes a framework for modeling and forecasting export sales using Genetic Programming, which is an artificial intelligence technique derived from the model of biological evolution. Analyzing an empirical case of an export company, an export sales forecasting model is suggested. Moreover, a sales forecast for a period of six weeks is conducted, the output of which is compared with the real sales data. Finally, a variable sensitivity analysis is presented for the causal forecasting model.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2021. Vol. 163, article id 120480
Keywords [en]
Artificial intelligence, Causal forecasting, Export sales forecast, Genetic programming, Modeling, Biology, Genetic algorithms, Sales, Sensitivity analysis, Supply chain management, Artificial intelligence techniques, Biological evolution, Forecasting methods, Forecasting modeling, Modeling and forecasting, Resource management, Sales forecasting, Time series forecasting, Forecasting
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-42491DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120480ISI: 000608421000007Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85096869080OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-42491DiVA, id: diva2:1507629
2020-12-082020-12-082022-10-03Bibliographically approved