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Last Night in Sweden? Using Gaussian Processes to Study Changing Demographics at the Level of Municipalities
Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics.
2020 (English)In: European Journal of Crime, Criminal Law and Criminal Justice, ISSN 0928-9569, E-ISSN 1571-8174, Vol. 28, no 1Article in journal (Refereed) In press
Abstract [en]

 The increased immigration in Western Europe has been linked by some political parties to increased criminality rates. We study the statistical relationship between the proportion of foreign-born to three types of reported criminality - rapes, burglary, and assault. The analysis is based on Swedish municipality level data for 2002-2014, years with signicant immigration. Using non-parametric Gaussian processes models, we find that while reported rape rates have increased, they are likely best explained by changes in reporting. The reported burglary rates have decreased, while reported assault rates are positively correlated to the proportion of foreign-born residents in the municipality.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 28, no 1
Keywords [en]
Criminality, Demographic shifts, Gaussian processes
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-39425OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-39425DiVA, id: diva2:1371905
Available from: 2019-11-21 Created: 2019-11-21 Last updated: 2019-11-26

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
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Language
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
  • rtf