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Guld - en safe haven mot volatilitet?: Undersökning av förhållandet mellan guld och volatilitetsindex
Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Business Studies.
Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Business Studies.
2018 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

I denna studie undersöks guld som safe haven-tillgång och om den erbjuder tillflykt mot volatilitet, vilket är studiens huvudsakliga syfte. För att åstadkomma detta används data från VIX- och GVZ-indexet samt priset på guld under perioden 1994–2018. Guldets egenskaper testas mot safe haven-teorin via ett kvantitativt angreppsätt där korrelation, avkastning och standardavvikelse är ämne för undersökning i utvalda perioder. Guld visar sig bevara sitt värde under oroligheter – vilket syns genom att den genomsnittliga avkastningen för guld är högre när VIX befinner sig på höga nivåer. Dock misslyckas tillgången att förbli lågvolatil då guldets volatilitet stiger i takt med den förväntade volatiliteten på aktiemarknaden. Den förväntade volatiliteten i guldpriset, uttryckt genom GVZ, korrelerar dessutom med den förväntade volatiliteten på aktiemarknaden mätt av VIX-indexet. Däremot upptäcks knappt någon korrelation mellan guldets pris och förändringar i VIX-indexets värde.

Abstract [en]

The purpose of this study was to analyse whether gold fulfils the criteria for being a safe haven asset in certain conditions. Through the use of data pooled from CBOE’s VIX, GVZ and the spot price of gold, we employ a quantitative approach to analyse correlation, rate of return and standard deviation during times of market volatility. The chosen period for this analysis is the time between 1994 and 2018. Gold proved its ability to retain value during such conditions, which is evidenced by higher average returns when VIX has been at high levels. This strengthens its role as a safe haven asset. However, gold failed to keep a low level of volatility in periods of rising implied volatility on the stock market, as expressed by the VIX index. Moreover, the implied volatility of gold, expressed through the GVZ index, has shown a strong correlation with the VIX, indicating that gold is not a safe haven. Finally, the gold spot price was shown to have little to no correlation with changes in VIX.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. , p. 35
Keywords [en]
volatility, gold, safe haven asset, VIX, GVZ, gold spot
Keywords [sv]
guld, volatilitet, VIX, GVZ, safe haven, guldkurs
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-35507OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-35507DiVA, id: diva2:1214803
Subject / course
Business Studies
Uppsok
Social and Behavioural Science, Law
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2018-06-07 Created: 2018-06-07 Last updated: 2018-06-07Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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