sh.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, USA .
Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics. Stockholm School of Economics.
Uppsala University.
2017 (English)In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, no 2, e0171560Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 12, no 2, e0171560
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-32196DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171560ISI: 000395934400006PubMedID: 28241057Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85014021572OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-32196DiVA: diva2:1078314
Available from: 2017-03-03 Created: 2017-03-03 Last updated: 2017-07-14Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMedScopusPMC Full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Bali Swain, Ranjula
By organisation
Economics
In the same journal
PLoS ONE
Economics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

Altmetric score

Total: 35 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf