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COVID-19 pandemic waves: Identification and interpretation of global data
Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics. Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0573-5287
Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3747-9038
Uppsala University, Sweden.
2024 (English)In: Heliyon, E-ISSN 2405-8440, Vol. 10, no 3, article id e25090Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The mention of the COVID-19 waves is as prevalent as the pandemic itself. Identifying the beginning and end of the wave is critical to evaluating the impact of various COVID-19 variants and the different pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical (including economic, health and social, etc.) interventions. We demonstrate a scientifically robust method to identify COVID-19 waves and the breaking points at which they begin and end from January 2020 to June 2021. Employing the Break Least Square method, we determine the significance of COVID-19 waves for global-, regional-, and country-level data. The results show that the method works efficiently in detecting different breaking points. Identifying these breaking points is critical for evaluating the impact of the economic, health, social and other welfare interventions implemented during the pandemic crisis. Employing our method with high frequency data effectively determines the start and end points of the COVID-19 wave(s). Identifying waves at the country level is more relevant than at the global or regional levels. Our research results evidenced that the COVID-19 wave takes about 48 days on average to subside once it begins, irrespective of the circumstances.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024. Vol. 10, no 3, article id e25090
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Politics, Economy and the Organization of Society
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-53528DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25090ISI: 001180923900001PubMedID: 38327425OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-53528DiVA, id: diva2:1837191
Available from: 2024-02-13 Created: 2024-02-13 Last updated: 2024-04-05Bibliographically approved

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Bali Swain, RanjulaLin, Xiang

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • harvard-anglia-ruskin-university
  • apa-old-doi-prefix.csl
  • sodertorns-hogskola-harvard.csl
  • sodertorns-hogskola-oxford.csl
  • Other style
More styles
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  • de-DE
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