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Bali Swain, R., Lin, X. & Wallentin, F. Y. (2024). COVID-19 pandemic waves: Identification and interpretation of global data. Heliyon, 10(3), e25090, Article ID e25090.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>COVID-19 pandemic waves: Identification and interpretation of global data
2024 (English)In: Heliyon, E-ISSN 2405-8440, Vol. 10, no 3, p. e25090-, article id e25090Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The mention of the COVID-19 waves is as prevalent as the pandemic itself. Identifying the beginning and end of the wave is critical to evaluating the impact of various COVID-19 variants and the different pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical (including economic, health and social, etc.) interventions. We demonstrate a scientifically robust method to identify COVID-19 waves and the breaking points at which they begin and end from January 2020 to June 2021. Employing the Break Least Square method, we determine the significance of COVID-19 waves for global-, regional-, and country-level data. The results show that the method works efficiently in detecting different breaking points. Identifying these breaking points is critical for evaluating the impact of the economic, health, social and other welfare interventions implemented during the pandemic crisis. Employing our method with high frequency data effectively determines the start and end points of the COVID-19 wave(s). Identifying waves at the country level is more relevant than at the global or regional levels. Our research results evidenced that the COVID-19 wave takes about 48 days on average to subside once it begins, irrespective of the circumstances.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Politics, Economy and the Organization of Society
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-53528 (URN)10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25090 (DOI)38327425 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2024-02-13 Created: 2024-02-13 Last updated: 2024-02-13Bibliographically approved
Falk, M. T., Hagsten, E. & Lin, X. (2023). Importance of temporary and permanent snow for new second homes. International journal of biometeorology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Importance of temporary and permanent snow for new second homes
2023 (English)In: International journal of biometeorology, ISSN 0020-7128, E-ISSN 1432-1254Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

This study investigates empirically how natural snow depth and permanent snow affect the number of new second homes in Norway. One out of four Norwegian municipalities is partly covered by glaciers and permanent snow. In the winter seasons of 1983–2020, there is a decline in snow depth from 50 to 35 cm on average (based on 41 popular second-home areas in the mountains). Results of the fixed effects Poisson estimator with spatial elements show that there is a significant and positive relationship between natural snow depth in the municipality and the number of second homes started. There is also a significant and negative relationship between the number of new second homes in the municipality and a scarcity of snow in the surrounding municipalities. However, the magnitude of both effects is small. Estimates also show a strong positive relationship between the proportion of surface covered by permanent snow or glaciers in the municipality and new second homes. This implies that a decline in permanent snow and glaciers may make these areas less attractive for the location of second homes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2023
Keywords
Second homes, Glaciers, Snow depth, Natural amenities, Spatial econometric models, Panel count data models, Norway
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-50595 (URN)10.1007/s00484-022-02420-0 (DOI)000909133500001 ()36607447 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85145693398 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas
Available from: 2023-01-10 Created: 2023-01-10 Last updated: 2024-01-23Bibliographically approved
Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2023). Self-employment, corruption, and property rights: a comparative analysis of European and CEE economies. SN Business & Economics, 3(1), Article ID 8.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Self-employment, corruption, and property rights: a comparative analysis of European and CEE economies
2023 (English)In: SN Business & Economics, E-ISSN 2662-9399, Vol. 3, no 1, article id 8Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study analyzes the relationship between self-employment, corruption, and property rights in 30 European countries, including 11 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) economies, across the two decades of 1996–2016. In general, relatively little research has focused on the relationship between entrepreneurship and the protection of property rights. Furthermore, past findings show that corruption may have both negative and positive effects on the level of entrepreneurial activity, either “greasing” or “sanding” the wheels for entrepreneurship. Overall, research on how the informal institution corruption and the formal institution property rights are linked to entrepreneurship in post-socialist/transition economies has been limited. We find that stronger protection of property rights increases self-employment ratios, both in Europe in general and in CEE economies. The relationship between self-employment and the control of corruption is not significant. We conclude that neither higher nor lower levels of corruption control affect the share of self-employment. In comparative perspective, the ratio of self-employment in the group of CEE economies does not respond differently to these two key institutions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2023
Keywords
Self-employment, Entrepreneurship, Institutions, Corruption, Property rights
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Baltic and East European studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-50584 (URN)10.1007/s43546-022-00390-4 (DOI)
Funder
The Foundation for Baltic and East European Studies, 63/2015
Available from: 2023-01-10 Created: 2023-01-10 Last updated: 2023-03-01Bibliographically approved
Falk, M., Hagsten, E. & Lin, X. (2023). Uneven domestic tourism demand in times of pandemic. Tourism Economics, 29(3), 596-611
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Uneven domestic tourism demand in times of pandemic
2023 (English)In: Tourism Economics, ISSN 1354-8166, E-ISSN 2044-0375, Vol. 29, no 3, p. 596-611Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study investigates the short-run impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of domestic overnight stays at the regional level in the summer season 2020. Official data for 65 regions in four countries are used for the analysis (Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany and Switzerland). Dynamic panel data models are employed to estimate a tourism demand equation (real GDP and price fluctuations) augmented by average temperatures. Estimation results reveal that domestic overnight stays evolve unevenly in the first summer after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The short-run effects show that the number of domestic overnight stays in densely populated regions decreases by 27% in July as well as in August 2020, in comparison with the same months in previous years, ceteris paribus. To the contrary, there is a surge of 27 and 10%, respectively, for sparsely populated areas in the same months. JEL: Z3, R11 and R12.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2023
Keywords
Regional tourism demand, domestic tourism and travel demand, dynamic panel data methods, population density
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-48607 (URN)10.1177/13548166211059409 (DOI)000765341400001 ()2-s2.0-85125696276 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-03-18 Created: 2022-03-18 Last updated: 2024-01-23Bibliographically approved
Falk, M. T., Hagsten, E. & Lin, X. (2022). Domestic tourism demand in the North and the South of Europe in the Covid-19 summer of 2020. The annals of regional science, 69, 537-553
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Domestic tourism demand in the North and the South of Europe in the Covid-19 summer of 2020
2022 (English)In: The annals of regional science, ISSN 0570-1864, E-ISSN 1432-0592, Vol. 69, p. 537-553Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study investigates empirically changes in domestic summer tourism demand following the Covid-19 pandemic in 305 regions across six European countries (Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Spain and Sweden) based on official data. Five different groups of NUTS 3 regions are identified in accordance with a typology suggested by the OECD where density and connectivity are aspects of importance. Dynamic panel data estimations show that large metropolitan regions experience strong decreases in demand (approximately 30 per cent) both in July and August 2020. There are, however, clear differences between the Northern and Southern European countries. In the North, the remote regions encounter an increased demand that is partially offsetting losses in the large metropolitan regions. This pattern cannot be found in the South. The decline in domestic tourism flows to the major metropolitan areas is also more pronounced in the South of Europe, approximately 50 per cent per summer month compared with 20 per cent (July 2020) and stagnation (August 2020) in the North regions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2022
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-49230 (URN)10.1007/s00168-022-01147-5 (DOI)000801178500001 ()35669629 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85131081017 (Scopus ID)
Note

JEL Classifcation: C23 · R1 · Z3

Available from: 2022-06-14 Created: 2022-06-14 Last updated: 2024-01-23Bibliographically approved
Falk, M., Hagsten, E. & Lin, X. (2022). High regional economic activity repels domestic tourism during summer of pandemic. Current Issues in Tourism, 25(8), 1209-1225
Open this publication in new window or tab >>High regional economic activity repels domestic tourism during summer of pandemic
2022 (English)In: Current Issues in Tourism, ISSN 1368-3500, E-ISSN 1747-7603, Vol. 25, no 8, p. 1209-1225Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study investigates empirically how the regional economic activity, measured as the agglomeration of establishments, affects domestic travel and tourism flows during the COVID-19 summer of 2020. Domestic tourism flows are approximated by the number of overnight stays in all 96 French regions. Results from spatial estimations reveal that lower economic activity attracts more domestic tourists. This relationship becomes inflated if the neighbouring areas are characterized by equally sparse economic activity. In July and August 2020, regions with a 10% lower density of establishments (combined effect of within the same region and surrounding regions) have a between one and two percentage points higher growth rate in domestic overnight stays than others. The share of second homes is also significantly and positively related to domestic tourism. Coastal regions and regions surrounded by national parks have a larger growth in domestic overnight stays in August 2020 (by 15 and 24 percentage points, respectively). The counterfactual estimations based on data for the years prior to the pandemic (2017-2019) reveal that regions with a high establishment density are growing in domestic tourism. The other local characteristics investigated are either insignificant (direct effects) or have the opposite sign (spillover effects).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2022
Keywords
Regional domestic tourism, France, establishment density, second homes, national parks, spatial econometric models
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-46358 (URN)10.1080/13683500.2021.1968805 (DOI)000690311700001 ()2-s2.0-85113704092 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2021-09-09 Created: 2021-09-09 Last updated: 2024-01-23Bibliographically approved
Falk, M., Hagsten, E. & Lin, X. (2022). Importance of land characteristics for resilience of domestic tourism demand. Tourism Recreation Resarch
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Importance of land characteristics for resilience of domestic tourism demand
2022 (English)In: Tourism Recreation Resarch, ISSN 0250-8281, E-ISSN 2320-0308Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

This study investigates empirically if land characteristics (especially forests and mountains) are of importance for the local ability to withstand the shock of the Covid-19 on domestic tourism demand during the summer of 2020. A second step of the analysis focuses on the recovery stage in the subsequent summer. Three tourism indicators are considered: arrivals, overnight stays and length of stay. Official data on land use characteristics of 2029 villages in the Federal state of Bavaria (South Germany) are employed for the analysis. Estimations using the Spatial Durbin model combined with the Heckman selection model reveal that there is a significant relationship between the proportion of forest within as well as surrounding the village and the demand for domestic tourism compared with the 2019 baseline. There is also a significant relationship with the altitude of the surrounding areas. The importance of mountains and forests is present in both the initial year of the pandemic and in the recovery year of 2021, although the magnitude is lower in the summer of 2021. Direct and spatial effects can also be found for lakes and rivers on overnight stays and length of stay.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2022
Keywords
Domestic tourism, land use, forestsvillages, spatial econometric models, Heckman selection model
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-50007 (URN)10.1080/02508281.2022.2116541 (DOI)000854253300001 ()2-s2.0-85138411064 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-10-03 Created: 2022-10-03 Last updated: 2024-01-23Bibliographically approved
Lin, X. & Falk, M. T. (2022). Nordic stock market performance of the travel and leisure industry during the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic. Tourism Economics, 28(5), 1240-1257
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Nordic stock market performance of the travel and leisure industry during the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic
2022 (English)In: Tourism Economics, ISSN 1354-8166, E-ISSN 2044-0375, Vol. 28, no 5, p. 1240-1257Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article investigates the performance of the stock market and its volatility in the travel and leisure industry for three Nordic countries using daily data from June 2018 to June 2020, a period that includes the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic. The methodology is based on the Markov regime switching model that allows unobservable regime shifts in the stock return relationship between the travel and leisure industry and the overall market in the period before the outbreak of Covid-19 crisis and during the recovery period at the end of the first wave. The results provide strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in the form of idiosyncratic risk as measured by volatility. The period before Covid-19 corresponds to a low/medium idiosyncratic risk, while the period of the pandemic is characterized by a regime with high idiosyncratic risk. Overall, the timing, likelihood and duration of this crisis regime depend on the composition of the travel and leisure firms. Those with a large proportion of online gambling firms perform better, while those consisting of international transportation firms, hotels and restaurants perform negatively. This study shows that the high-frequency data and the model chosen here can provide timely information on the impact of the pandemic on various tourism and leisure businesses that could be useful for policymaking.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2022
Keywords
digital leisure, Markov switching model, Nordic countries, stock market performance, travel and leisure sector
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Politics, Economy and the Organization of Society
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-44050 (URN)10.1177/1354816621990937 (DOI)000621167400001 ()2-s2.0-85100458109 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2021-02-15 Created: 2021-02-15 Last updated: 2022-09-15Bibliographically approved
Falk, M., Hagsten, E. & Lin, X. (2022). Spatial influence on the distribution of downhill skiers in Sweden. International journal of biometeorology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Spatial influence on the distribution of downhill skiers in Sweden
2022 (English)In: International journal of biometeorology, ISSN 0020-7128, E-ISSN 1432-1254Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

This study investigates empirically how natural snow depth affects the number of downhill skiers. Data include the number of skier visits for the 32 largest ski resorts in Sweden from the 1998/1999 to the 2018/2019 seasons. Results of spatial dynamic estimations show that an increase in natural snow depth in the ski area has a significant negative impact on the number of skier visits in the short term, although the magnitude is small. This implies that a snow deficit leads to increased demand for downhill skiing both directly and indirectly (in the neighbouring areas). The variable snow depth in the neighbouring ski areas is not significantly different from zero, indicating that no spatial substitution takes place. There is, however, a strong positive relationship between skier visits to neighbouring areas, revealing that ski resorts are complements rather than substitutes. The long-term influence of snow depth is not significant, implying that the ski business is independent of variations in snow depth. Instead, the number of skier visits is mainly determined by past visits, revealing a high degree of persistence.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2022
Keywords
Ski resorts, Skier visits, Snow depth, Spatial econometric models, Sweden
National Category
Economics Sport and Fitness Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-48717 (URN)10.1007/s00484-022-02259-5 (DOI)000777362700002 ()35357566 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85127424685 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-04-08 Created: 2022-04-08 Last updated: 2024-01-23Bibliographically approved
Lin, X., Hagsten, E. & Falk, M. (2022). Stock market performance of the US hospitality and tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic. Tourism Analysis, 27(4), 567-574
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Stock market performance of the US hospitality and tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic
2022 (English)In: Tourism Analysis, ISSN 1083-5423, E-ISSN 1943-3999, Vol. 27, no 4, p. 567-574Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this study, the stock market performance of the travel and leisure industry during the Covid-19 pandemic is investigated by use of the three-regime Markov switching model. The analysis employs daily data for six sub-sectors (airlines, gambling, hotels, leisure services, restaurants and bars as well as travel and tourism) for the United States from January 2018 to November 2021. Estimation results provide strong evidence of regime switching behaviour with wide differences across subsectors during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. A longer duration of high volatility characterises the airline and leisure services indices. These sectors exhibit the most pronounced downturn that is not fully recovered in November 2021. In contrast, the period of high volatility in the restaurant, gaming and hotel industries is relatively short, and stock market performance recovers almost to the general trend. Of all sub-sectors, restaurants and bars experience the shortest duration of high volatility, limited to the second quarter of 2020. The stock market indices for the travel and tourism industry (mainly car rentals) are also highly volatility, but this is pattern that was observed already before the pandemic.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cognizant Communication Corporation, 2022
Keywords
Covid-19 pandemic; Markov switching model; Stock market performance; United States; travel and leisure sector
National Category
Economics Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-49284 (URN)10.3727/108354222x16548884978203 (DOI)000965802800013 ()2-s2.0-85145925165 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-06-16 Created: 2022-06-16 Last updated: 2024-01-23Bibliographically approved
Projects
Firm demography and entrepeneurship in Eastern and Central Europe and in the Baltic region [63/2015_OSS]; Södertörn University; Publications
Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2023). Self-employment, corruption, and property rights: a comparative analysis of European and CEE economies. SN Business & Economics, 3(1), Article ID 8. Falk, M. & Lin, X. (2021). Time-varying impact of snow depth on tourism in selected regions. International journal of biometeorology, 65, 645-657Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2020). Bankruptcies in Sweden, 1774–1849: Causes and structural differences (1ed.). In: Klas Nyberg; Håkan Jakobsson (Ed.), Luxury, Fashion and the Early Modern Idea of Credit: (pp. 62-75). London: RoutledgeGratzer, K., Hayen, M. & Nyberg, K. (2020). The Swedish bankruptcy system, 1734–1849. In: Klas Nyberg; Håkan Jakobsson (Ed.), Luxury, Fashion and the Early Modern Idea of Credit: (pp. 51-61). London: RoutledgeGratzer, K. (2019). Medicinturism anno 1678: tidigmoderna entreprenörer inom sjukvården (1ed.). In: Frank-Michael Kirsch, Kjell Ljungbo och Erik A. Borg (Ed.), Medicinturism: Gränsöverskridande sjukvård i teori och praktik (pp. 231-288). Gidlunds förlagBox, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2019). The Asymmetric Effect of Bankruptcy Fraud in Sweden: A Long-Term Perspective. Journal of quantitative criminology, 35(2), 287-312Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2018). Företagsnedläggningar: Olika perspektiv och forskningsmetoder. Insolvensrättslig tidskrift, 3(1), 12-31Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2017). New-Firm Survival in Sweden: New Methods and Results. International Review of Entrepreneurship (4), 431-464, Article ID 1567.
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-3747-9038

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