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Lin, Xiang
Publications (10 of 13) Show all publications
Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2019). The Asymmetric Effect of Bankruptcy Fraud in Sweden: A Long-Term Perspective. Journal of quantitative criminology, 35(2), 287-312
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Asymmetric Effect of Bankruptcy Fraud in Sweden: A Long-Term Perspective
2019 (English)In: Journal of quantitative criminology, ISSN 0748-4518, E-ISSN 1573-7799, Vol. 35, no 2, p. 287-312Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Objectives: The knowledge of the effects of white-collar crimes is incomplete. In the article, we operationalize white-collar crimes as bankruptcy frauds. Economic models maintain that interlinkages between firms may give ‘domino effects’: bankruptcy events could lead to ‘bankruptcy chains’ in which a bankruptcy spreads to other firms. Analogously, criminologists assert that social and economic networks can be a major source of fraud diffusion, with the potential to drive other firms bankrupt. Recent empirical results show that crimes may have detrimental and even asymmetric (nonlinear) effects on economic activity. We analyze the diffusion and the aggregate development of bankruptcy frauds in Sweden over nearly two hundred years, specifically focusing on the relationship between bankruptcy frauds and the bankruptcy volume. We also consider linkages between bankruptcy frauds, bankruptcies, and the macroeconomic cycle. Methods: We use long, aggregate time series, collected from several different historical and contemporary sources. Applying the recently developed cointegrating nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, we investigate whether the bankruptcy volume reacts asymmetrically to increases and decreases in bankruptcy frauds, both in the short and the long run. Results: Bankruptcy frauds reveal a causal effect on bankruptcies, showing an asymmetric (nonlinear) diffusion effect from economic frauds to the bankruptcy volume. Increases in bankruptcy frauds have a positive and significant effect on the bankruptcy volume. However, decreases in bankruptcy frauds show no significant effect. No causal relationship between the macroeconomic cycle and bankruptcy frauds is found. Conclusions: Our data and research approach demonstrate how previously generated hypotheses in both criminology and economic research on the relationship between (economic) crimes, economic activity, and the diffusion of white-collar crime can be tested at an aggregate level. © 2018 The Author(s)

Keywords
Bankruptcy fraud, Diffusion of fraud, Sweden, White-collar crimes
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-34933 (URN)10.1007/s10940-018-9380-2 (DOI)000468597300004 ()2-s2.0-85045754876 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-05-04 Created: 2018-05-04 Last updated: 2019-06-10Bibliographically approved
Falk, M. & Lin, X. (2019). Time-varying impact of snow depth on tourism in selected regions. International journal of biometeorology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Time-varying impact of snow depth on tourism in selected regions
2019 (English)In: International journal of biometeorology, ISSN 0020-7128, E-ISSN 1432-1254Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

This study uses a time-varying model that provides new evidence on the changing relationship between domestic overnight stays of selected winter sport destinations and natural snow conditions. A Kalman filter method combined with wavelet-based multiresolution analysis (MRA) is employed to investigate the relationships in intervals between 2 and 4 and up to 16-32 months. The model is applied to domestic overnight stays for selected mountain regions in Sweden (Dalarna and Jämtland), Norway (Buskerud, Hedmark, Hordaland and Oppland) and Austria (Salzburg and Tyrol). Results show that the sensitivity of domestic overnight stays on natural snow conditions varies markedly depending on location, time period and frequency band window used in the estimation. The medium-run relation for Tyrol and Salzburg is significantly declining over time, while in Norway and Sweden, the same relationship is generally volatile and not significant at the end of the sample period. In the short run, none of the regions exhibits a link between domestic overnight stays and snow depth fluctuations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2019
Keywords
Domestic tourism demand, Overnight stays, Snow depth, Time-varying models, Winter tourism
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-39702 (URN)10.1007/s00484-019-01848-1 (DOI)000504620500001 ()31884523 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85077168505 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2020-01-03 Created: 2020-01-03 Last updated: 2020-01-10Bibliographically approved
Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2018). Destructive entrepreneurship in the small business sector: bankruptcy fraud in Sweden, 1830–2010. Small Business Economics, 1-21
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Destructive entrepreneurship in the small business sector: bankruptcy fraud in Sweden, 1830–2010
2018 (English)In: Small Business Economics, ISSN 0921-898X, E-ISSN 1573-0913, p. 1-21Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Entrepreneurship will not always productive: Baumol (1990, 1993) distinguishes between productive, unproductive, and destructive entrepreneurial activities, and in the last two cases, new values are not created. Setting of from the notion of destructive entrepreneurship and the bankruptcy institute as framework for the empirical analysis, we use long aggregate series on bankruptcies and bankruptcy frauds in Sweden, 1830–2010. We operationalize destructive entrepreneurship with bankruptcy frauds. The bankruptcy institute is not a pure cleansing mechanism; assets can be redistributed by criminal procedure. Thus, a form of destructive entrepreneurship can be conducted within this system. We link bankruptcy frauds to the selection mechanism—the aggregate bankruptcy volume—over time. We cannot establish any direct linkages between the bankruptcy volume and institutional changes. However, and in line with research on bankruptcy diffusion and diffusion of economic crimes, we find that bankruptcy frauds have significant, positive impacts on the bankruptcy volume. Therefore, our results indicate that increases in bankruptcy frauds, destructive entrepreneurship, would affect the economic system. © 2018 The Author(s)

Keywords
Bankruptcy, Bankruptcy fraud, Destructive entrepreneurship, Sweden
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-34934 (URN)10.1007/s11187-018-0043-3 (DOI)2-s2.0-85045625168 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, P12-1122:1
Available from: 2018-05-04 Created: 2018-05-04 Last updated: 2018-11-19Bibliographically approved
Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2018). Företagsnedläggningar: Olika perspektiv och forskningsmetoder. Insolvensrättslig tidskrift, 3(1), 12-31
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Företagsnedläggningar: Olika perspektiv och forskningsmetoder
2018 (Swedish)In: Insolvensrättslig tidskrift, ISSN 2002-6315, Vol. 3, no 1, p. 12-31Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [sv]

Uppsatsen redogör för förklaringar till företagsdödlighet i såväl offentliga utredningar som inom ekonomisk och sociologisk forskning och teoribildning. Två fundamentalt olika föreställningar om hur och varför företag beter sig på ett visst sätt har dominerat de flesta studier. Ett perspektiv förutsätter en central roll för företagsledningens beslutsfattande och kompetens. Ett andra och motsatt perspektiv ser företags beteenden bestämda av externa krafter över vilka företagsledningen saknar kontroll. De olika föreställningarna påverkar resultat och slutsatser inom forskningen och har också betydelse för utformningen av den ekonomiska politiken.

National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Baltic and East European studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-34763 (URN)2015/3.1.1/1322 (Local ID)2015/3.1.1/1322 (Archive number)2015/3.1.1/1322 (OAI)
Projects
Firm demography and entrepreneurship in Eastern and Central Europe and in the Baltic region
Funder
The Foundation for Baltic and East European Studies
Available from: 2018-03-15 Created: 2018-03-15 Last updated: 2018-04-25Bibliographically approved
Falk, M. & Lin, X. (2018). Income elasticity of overnight stays over seven decades. Tourism Economics, 24(8), 1015-1028
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Income elasticity of overnight stays over seven decades
2018 (English)In: Tourism Economics, ISSN 1354-8166, E-ISSN 2044-0375, Vol. 24, no 8, p. 1015-1028Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article provides new evidence on the stability of the long-run income elasticity of tourism and travel demand by use of the recently developed smooth time-varying cointegration regression model. The estimations control for relative purchasing power parity of the source country and make use of a specific country dataset where domestic and foreign overnight stays are available over a longer period of time (Switzerland, 1934–2015). Results show that the income elasticity of foreign overnight stays peaks at approximately two in the early 1960s, drops to around one in the early 1980s and from then on remains stable until the end of the sample. Domestic income elasticity reaches its highest levels in the 1930s, then steadily falls towards one in the mid-1960s, and therefrom remains stable until 2015. Different phases in the tourism area life cycle might be a major explanatory factor for variation in income elasticities over time. © The Author(s) 2018.

Keywords
income elasticity of tourism and travel demand, overnight stays, structural breaks, Switzerland, time-varying cointegration model, Zürich
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-37150 (URN)10.1177/1354816618803781 (DOI)000453434900007 ()2-s2.0-85058539789 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2019-01-02 Created: 2019-01-02 Last updated: 2019-01-04Bibliographically approved
Falk, M. & Lin, X. (2018). Sensitivity of winter tourism to temperature increases over the last decades. Economic Modelling, 71, 174-183
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sensitivity of winter tourism to temperature increases over the last decades
2018 (English)In: Economic Modelling, ISSN 0264-9993, E-ISSN 1873-6122, Vol. 71, p. 174-183Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of temperatures on tourism demand in the winter season. The analysis is based on time series data spanning from 1960 to 2015 for the South Tyrolean mountains in Italy. Since 1960, winter temperatures have increased by 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade, on average. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is employed for the estimations. This model allows two separate coefficients to impact tourism demand, following temperature changes (decreases or increases). Results reveal that an increase in winter temperatures by one degree Celsius leads to a decline in the number of accommodation guests (arrivals) by eight per cent, while temperature decreases have no effect on the number of arrivals. However, sensitivity to temperature increases has been declining since the early 1990s, probably due to the widespread usage of snowmaking facilities. The number of these facilities has increased by almost 10 per cent per year on average over the same period. In recent years (1986-2015), and as a consequence of these measures, temperature increases no longer have an effect on winter tourism demand. Conversely, decreases in temperatures lead to small increases in arrivals (by four per cent increase due to a one degree Celsius decrease).

Keywords
Tourism demand, Nonlinear ARDL, Winter tourism, Climate change, Temperatures, South tyrol, Italy
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-34032 (URN)10.1016/j.econmod.2017.12.011 (DOI)000435748300014 ()2-s2.0-85039769213 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-01-09 Created: 2018-01-09 Last updated: 2018-07-05Bibliographically approved
Falk, M. & Lin, X. (2018). The declining dependence of ski lift operators on natural snow conditions. Tourism Economics, 24(6), 662-676
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The declining dependence of ski lift operators on natural snow conditions
2018 (English)In: Tourism Economics, ISSN 1354-8166, E-ISSN 2044-0375, Vol. 24, no 6, p. 662-676Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study tests for a structural shift in the relationship between revenues of ski lift operators and natural snow conditions. The analysis is based on time series data for the Swedish ski lift industry spanning from 1980 to 2017. Since 1970, snow depth in winter sport destinations has decreased markedly by about 5 cm per decade. Estimations based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model show that revenues (in constant prices) of ski lift operators are significantly positively related to natural snow conditions, given the impact of relative prices and real GDP. However, ARDL estimations with rolling windows reveal that the sensitivity of revenues from ski lift ticket sales to variations in snow depth is declining over time. For the subsamples starting at the end of 1980s onward, revenues no longer significantly depend on natural snow depth. This is likely due to the implementation of adaptation measures such as investments in snowmaking facilities. © 2018, The Author(s) 2018.

Keywords
autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, climate change, skiing demand, snow depth, structural shift, Sweden, winter tourism
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-34909 (URN)10.1177/1354816618768321 (DOI)000441946000003 ()2-s2.0-85045239844 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-04-27 Created: 2018-04-27 Last updated: 2018-09-06Bibliographically approved
Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2017). New-Firm Survival in Sweden: New Methods and Results. International Reveiw of Entrepreneurship (4), 431-464, Article ID 1567.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>New-Firm Survival in Sweden: New Methods and Results
2017 (English)In: International Reveiw of Entrepreneurship, ISSN 2009-2822, no 4, p. 431-464, article id 1567Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We analyse firm survival and focus on several levels of analysis (both firm level and macro-level). We employ a unique longitudinal data set, recorded at the firm-level and covering nine complete entry cohorts of Swedish companies. The companies were founded between 1899 and 1992, and each firm is followed over nearly a decade. We adopt the semi-parametric complementary log-log (cloglog) model. The main novelty of our approach is that, unlike extant studies so far, we are able to distinguish between the impact on the hazard rate of founding conditions and contemporaneous, post-entry conditions. Using our new approach we test several hypotheses derived from the Industrial Organization and Organizational Ecology literatures.

Keywords
firm entry; survival; founding conditions; contemporaneous conditions; Sweden JEL-codes: L25, L26, C14, C41
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Baltic and East European studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-33893 (URN)000423944000003 ()2015/3.1.1/1322 (Local ID)2015/3.1.1/1322 (Archive number)2015/3.1.1/1322 (OAI)
Projects
Firm demography and entrepreneurship in Eastern and Central Europe and in the Baltic region
Funder
The Foundation for Baltic and East European Studies
Available from: 2017-12-14 Created: 2017-12-14 Last updated: 2018-07-04Bibliographically approved
Box, M., Gratzer, K. & Lin, X. (2016). Konkurs och konjunktur i Sverige 1830-2010. Insolvensrättslig Tidskrift (1), 20-36
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Konkurs och konjunktur i Sverige 1830-2010
2016 (Swedish)In: Insolvensrättslig Tidskrift, ISSN 2002-6315, no 1, p. 20-36Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [sv]

Ekonomer betraktar vanligtvis konkursutvecklingen som en konjunkturindikator och därmed beroende av förändringar på ekonomins efterfrågesida: konkurserna förväntas öka i tider av ekonomisk nedgång och minska under högkonjunkturer. Flertalet analyser är emellertid kortsiktiga. I denna uppsats presenterar vi ny och unik empiri där vi ana­lyserar det långsiktiga sambandet mellan konjunkturväxlingar och konkurser i Sverige mellan år 1830 och år 2010. I uppsatsen diskuteras också problem som kan uppstå i tolk­ningen av konkursstatistiken, både historiskt och i vår samtid. Den statistiska analysen visar att det delvis går att fastställa ett samband mellan makroekonomiska svängningar och förändringar i konkursmängden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Karlstad: Handelshögskolan vid Karlstads universitet, 2016
Keywords
konkurs, insolvens, konjunktur, ekonomisk tillväxt
National Category
Law and Society Economic History Economics
Research subject
Politics, Economy and the Organization of Society
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-30938 (URN)1390/42/2012 (Local ID)1390/42/2012 (Archive number)1390/42/2012 (OAI)
Projects
Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and the Demography of Firms and Industries in Sweden over Two Centuries
Funder
Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, P12-1122:1
Available from: 2016-10-04 Created: 2016-10-04 Last updated: 2017-05-17Bibliographically approved
Box, M., Lin, X. & Gratzer, K. (2016). Linking Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth in Sweden, 1850–2000 (1ed.). In: Dieter Bögenhold, Jean Bonnet, Marcus Dejardin, Domingo Garcia Pérez de Lema (Ed.), Contemporary Entrepreneurship: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Innovation and Growth (pp. 31-49). Cham: Springer
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Linking Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth in Sweden, 1850–2000
2016 (English)In: Contemporary Entrepreneurship: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Innovation and Growth / [ed] Dieter Bögenhold, Jean Bonnet, Marcus Dejardin, Domingo Garcia Pérez de Lema, Cham: Springer, 2016, 1, p. 31-49Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Recent developments in entrepreneurship suggest a causal link between entrepreneurial activity and economic growth: entrepreneurship precedes economic growth. A positive effect from entrepreneurship on economic development in advanced, innovation-driven economies in the most recent decades is often maintained. Self-employment is one of the most common indicators of entrepreneurship. The present study uses very long series of non-interrupted data on self-employment in Sweden (1850–2000). It analyzes the relationship between variations in self-employment and economic growth. For the entire period, variations in self-employment had a significant, instantaneous positive correlation with GDP growth. However, no causal relationship could be discovered: variations in self-employment did not (Granger) cause GDP growth. We discovered a structural break in GDP growth as early as in the year of 1948. Up until 1948, (Granger) causality between self-employment and GDP could not be established for any direction. For the other segment (1949–2000), GDP growth (Granger) caused self-employment growth, but not the other way around. For the period 1949–2000, but not for the previous period, selfemployment lagged with respect to GDP growth.  Consequently, GDP growth preceded self-employment growth, but self-employment growth did not precede GDP growth. Given that self-employment is a suitable indicator, the empirical results in this study are, in several respects, in disagreement with dominating assumptions in mainstream research.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cham: Springer, 2016 Edition: 1
Keywords
Entrepreneurship, Self-employment, Economic growth, Granger causality, Sweden
National Category
Economic History Economics
Research subject
Politics, Economy and the Organization of Society
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-30319 (URN)10.1007/978-3-319-28134-6_3 (DOI)2-s2.0-84978199995 (Scopus ID)1390/42/2012 (Local ID)978-3-319-28132-2 (ISBN)978-3-319-28134-6 (ISBN)1390/42/2012 (Archive number)1390/42/2012 (OAI)
Projects
Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and the Demography of Firms and Industries in Sweden over Two Centuries
Funder
Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, P12-1122:1
Available from: 2016-06-14 Created: 2016-06-14 Last updated: 2017-05-10Bibliographically approved
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